By Johan Galtung
Presumably written in 2000
[1] Europe is divided since 1054 (forerunner 395) and 1095 into three parts: Roman-Germanic/Catholic-Protestant (+USA = the West); Slavic-Orthodox and Turko-Muslim. Romania, Greece: ambiguous.
General archetype: Slavic/Orthodox, and Turko/Muslim, are evil.
[2] Faultlines intersect in Sarajevo/BiH; cut Pristina/Skopje.
[3] Parties are nations with claims on land with dualism of discourses as bondage versus independence. Living together only under foreign rule (Habsburg/Ottoman; Nazi; Tito; NATO).
[4] If not, there is a tendency toward “ethnic cleansing”, mostly by expelling/escaping, sometimes by killing (like Israel in Palestine). Brutal, with medieval roots (like in Ulster).
[5] When a conflict turns violent pieces may be up for grabs by outsiders.
[6] In addition: Austria/Germany’s chance to win WWI and WWII.
[7] In addition: Yugoslav disintegration used by the EU to make a joint foreign policy and by NATO to make a New World Order serving its future survival.
[8] Yugoslavia turned violent because of old national claims, their instrumentalization, and intervention by big powers.
[9] It is in the interest of big veto powers that “local” conflicts turn violent because it legitimizes their own interventions. A Rugova spoils the occasion and merits no support, wait till “time is ripe”. Metaphor: vultures circling over ground battle.
[10] By historical logic the Catholic part of Yugoslavia would go to the West/EU; Russia would presumably play a role in the Orthodox parts (Serbia, Montenegro, half of Macedonia). Russia failed, and nothing for China; both turned against the process.
[11] Problem: what is in it for USA?
Solution: Picking up the Muslims the USA for additional reasons:
– having killed too many Arabs/Muslims in the Gulf war (310.000);
– the Muslim market worldwide is enormous, the Arab market isn’t;
– walking into the shoes of the old Ottoman Empire (via the Turkish military/Israel alliance, bases in Baku, etc., like walking into the shoes of the Spanish empire one century ago.
[12] Problem: the Catholic/Muslim faultline in BiH, which set Germany/BND and USA/CIA on collision course having trained them. Solution: the Croat-Bosniak “federation” package in BiH.
[13] Problem: The “Muslims are terrorist” and bent on world domination, the Crusades are still on, etc. Solution: No Muslim state on European soil; BiH has to be reconstituted by packaging the Croat-Bosniak federation with Republika Srpska. Dayton. Use of uti possidetis, no precedent.
[14] BiH uninteresting for the USA strategically (land-locked, no oil passage); the Albanian/Macdeonian/Kosovo complex is highly attractive (ports in Vlora/Dürres; UCK can be supported and can expel Serbs, Macedonia can be bought). Thus Rambouillet “negotiations”.
[15] Overarching problem: Nothing solved. More trauma. More revenge.
Yugoslavia - What Should Have Been Done? 
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